Forecasting for Our New Futures in Light of COVID-19

We all had a budget for the year. In light of everything that has happened, that budget may have changed drastically or be gone altogether. Those assumptions we were so confident of in January may be wrong now. Priority #1 is revisit our budgets to see what makes sense. Even if our budgets make sense, you will probably find that your assumptions for delivering services and receiving payment may be changed in the current environment.  The same goes for operations: critical components like your human capital, suppliers, processes and systems, etc. may not function as you planned because of hard decisions you are making or will make. You must review these things and rethink to stay ahead of the curve — as hard as that may seem it is crucial right now that we all stay steps, days, weeks, and months ahead of the challenges ahead. There are future impacts to your business that are coming a few months down the road; you must try your best to get ahead of it.

 

Normally, a recession takes place over a 6 month or so period.  What’s different now is that a recession has arrived in the fastest manner in modern history, so the normal precautions that may have been in place will have to be in place immediately.  We tend to get stuck in the weeds of survival — heads down to deal with the crisis of today. But while we are doing that, we must also rise up and take a look at what could be coming down the road.  We have to talk to our customers and partners, rethink and redesign products and services, and adjust our assumptions (and potentially our business models) if we are to ride things out. If we are lucky and focused, this may just possibly switch from survival mode to thrive mode.

 

We have a toolkit that is always freely available to help you think through all aspects of your business.  Here below we have highlighted a couple of items listed that would be particularly relevant to review and apply to your company. 

 

Start Co. Small Business Toolkit: https://neverstop.co/small-business-toolkit/

 

Items to visit for existing businesses:

  • Business Model Canvas
  • Operating Model Canvas
  • Risk Mitigation
  • Porter’s Five Forces
  • Prioritizing the Growth Wheel

 

We are all being forced to make some guesses on where the market will be in a month, 3 months, 6 months, etc.  The guesses aren’t what is important — stepping back to think is. We all can take a step back to look in on our businesses.  That’s what is most helpful in the chaotic, problem solving environment we are in. For those of you who are protected from the current economic happenings, I suggest you stay intuned with your customers, partners, and environments and assess your industry’s lag to the current economic situation.  New opportunities will always present themselves if we are open to the possibility and seek them out.

 

We know most of you are looking at all the day-to-day developments-from assistance packages to unemployment, but we wanted to make sure we are thinking about the full picture.  This will help you better make sure the small decisions fit into a broader plan for the future that is ahead. Do you need a plan for the current COVID-19 environment we are in?

 

Dive into the toolkit.  Reach out to us. Never Stop.

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